U.S. Elections Increase Augur’s Total Ether Wagers to Over $2M


After its launch in July, the decentralized betting platform built on the Ethereum Blockchain, Augur, has gone on hibernation, which may be attributed to its outdated user experience and a widespread drop in the popularity of decentralized applications. However, money has begun pouring into the platform as the U.S. midterm elections draw near.

Data from Predictions.Global indicates that the market for “Which party will control the House after 2018 U.S. Midterm Election?” has generated 3,517 Ether or close to $727,000 wagered on it as of press time. Predictions.Global is a website which gives users an opportunity to view and search for Augur markets.

The market has already overtaken “Will price of Ethereum exceed $500 at the end of 2018?” by a huge gap. For months, this market has the most open interest, which has $523,000 staked on it as of press time. Predictions.Global also says that the midterms market is the “most liquid” on the platform, with target liquidity of more than 250 Ether.

The influx of funds into the midterms market has boosted the total dollar amount wagered on Augur to a new all-time high of almost $2.1 million. The midterms market gives the Democrats a 66 percent probability of winning the House, as opposed to an 88 percent chance on FiveThirtyEight’s poll-related model.

Notably, Augur’s open interest in Ether terms (presently at 10,134 Ether) has been on the constant increase. On the other hand, the dollar-dominated open interest has failed to surpass its July high only because of Ether’s declining exchange rate until the end of October. According to the data gathered by Twitter user “defroi”:

#Augur. Switching back to showing the Total OI stats as of now.

Another chart shows the rise in total open interest on the platform, which can be partly attributed to the House prediction market, which started to climb on October 22.

However, Augur’s languorous daily user numbers have so far failed to increase. DappRadar states that the number has ranged from 19 to 56 users per day in October. The platform’s all-time high is 256, which was achieved on the day of its launch.

Despite this, Ryan Berckmans, co-founder of Predictions.Global, says that the growth of the midterms market bodes well for the platform. He states that “It used to be very concentrated,” in the market for Ether’s year-end price. He adds by saying:

“That’s still a big market, but the diversification into different verticals is a very good sign.”

Bercksmans further clarifies that by “verticals” he means that the growth outside digital currency price derivatives (the biggest category in terms of open interest and betting volume) into other sectors like politics.